NVIDIA’s AI: Earnings Triumph, China Gridlock, and Capitol Stakes
)
NVIDIA’s latest earnings call delivered the kind of headline-grabbing success that makes Wall Street sit up and take notice. As the figures rolled in, the semiconductor giant revealed a staggering 56 percent year-on-year jump in quarterly revenue, $46.7 billion, driven overwhelmingly by an insatiable global appetite for AI infrastructure. With net income soaring 59 percent to $26.4 billion and earnings per share hitting $1.08, the company’s financial prowess was unmistakable. Buoyed by this momentum, NVIDIA’s board authorized a colossal $60 billion share buyback, an aggressive move signaling deep confidence in future growth.
Yet beneath the surface of these dazzling numbers lies a more complex story, one shaped by the geopolitical tightrope NVIDIA is walking. China, once a vital market, has turned into a question mark in the firm’s outlook. A U.S. export ban on the H20 AI chip has effectively frozen sales to the Chinese market, causing China-related revenue to plunge. Although shareholders have approved a framework allowing chip sales in exchange for a 15 percent cut of revenue going to the U.S. government, final approval remains in limbo. As a result, NVIDIA posted $650 million in H20 sales elsewhere, but China’s demand has sputtered.
In parallel, NVIDIA has entered into delicate talks with the Trump administration around a new, export-compliant variant of its Blackwell chip, dubbed the “B30A”, designed specifically for the Chinese market. While the details are still being ironed out, this potential workaround seeks to balance regulatory compliance with capturing waning demand. Beijing, however, remains wary; Chinese authorities have openly flagged concerns about possible “backdoors” in these chips, heightening the tension between technological necessity and national security.
At the heart of these strategic turns is a deeply controversial pivot in U.S. policy (as mentioned above), a Trump-era deal that trades AI chip access for revenue. The agreement compels NVIDIA (and AMD) to pay a 15 percent share of their China-generated chip revenues to the U.S. in exchange for export licenses. Critics denounce this as a dangerous “pay-to-play” precedent that undermines national security and upends free-market norms. Supporters argue it ensures the government shares in the wealth generated by global exports. Regardless, it’s a seismic shift in how government and big tech intersect.
Amid all this high-stakes maneuvering, a glance into Capitol’s own movers and shakers reveals that many elite politicians have skin in the NVIDIA game. Representative Cleo Fields made several massive investments this year, his trading volume in the issuer reaching up to $7 million. Other notable players include Senator Markwayne Mullin and Representative Lisa McClain, as well as Senator Nancy Pelosi, who previously executed a bullish trade: exercising call options and purchasing 50,000 shares at less than $1M price, later selling 10,000 shares at a price between $1M and $5M, clearly still holding a massive chunk.
One of the most striking revelations came from former President Trump, whose ethics filings revealed he held well over half a million dollars, and potentially more than a million, in Nvidia stock at the end of last year, casting his administration’s chip policy decisions in a far more personal light.
